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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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